After nearly 10 years of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover and thrive, many investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. LPL Research believes there’s more room to run, and we don’t expect an impending recession or bear market in 2019; however, it is a good time to start thinking about what the next phase for the economy and markets may look like.

Key Themes

Fiscal Policy

With the uncertainty of the midterm elections behind us and a split Congress convening in January, we expect “gridlock” to provide a better sense of polit

We are delighted to share the release of the LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, brimming with investment insights and market guidance for the year ahead.

After nearly 10 years of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover – and thrive – investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. LPL Research believes there’s more room to run, and doesn't expect an impending recession or bear market in 2019.

Given we are a decade in and likely nearing the end of the cycle, however, it is

Next week could bring the third government shutdown of 2018, especially after the fireworks out of Washington yesterday. In a widely watched live TV debate, President Trump sparred with Senate Minority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Pelosi regarding funding for the proposed wall on the Mexican border and potentially shutting down the government.

What exactly does a shutdown mean for stocks? “Although shutdowns get a lot of media hype, the reality is that stocks tend to take them in stride. In fact, the S&P 500 has gained during each of the five previous shutdowns,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detri

We view last week’s market decline as a retest of the October–November lows. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.6% last week, leaving the index in line with the low of the autumn correction and 10% off the September highs [Figure 1]. Losses were driven primarily by three issues: the risk that U.S.-China trade talks fall apart, concerns about a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy mistake, and sharply lower oil prices, all of which contributed to increasing concerns about slowing global growth or potential recession. This week, we summarize our views on these issues and discuss prospects for a potential stock market rebound based on technical an