As the first quarter comes to a close, it’s clear that equity markets have endured a difficult stretch. The strong momentum that drove a record‑setting rally early in the year faded quickly as concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) spending and disruption dampened risk appetite. The outbreak of the Iran war in late February added new challenges, as the essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz underpinned an unprecedented supply shock in oil that quickly drove prices to multi-year highs. Inflation fears promptly followed, and the market drastically repriced global monetary policy expectations to a higher-for-longer regime, with gr

Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year. 

Despite the sharp rise in oil prices and interest rates in March, our expectation is that the upcoming earnings season will be solid. While companies with business models sensitive to oil and rates may strike a more cautious t

Perspectives on The Energy Sector and Underlying Sub-Sectors

Energy cycles have a way of rewarding investors who show up early, while punishing those who assume the next upturn will look exactly like the last one. Supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran that began just under a month ago have upended markets globally, with oil markets taking center stage. My colleagues Kristian Kerr and Adam Turnquist have each written pieces this month digging into the physical oil market, “Assessing the Impact of Developments in Iran: Watch Energy” and “Oil in the Driver’s Seat as Geopolitical Tensions Rise”, r

As the U.S.-Iran conflict and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz enters its fourth week, market participants continue to search for some blue sky through the fog while remaining sensitive (in both directions) to fluid headlines flowing out of Washington and the Persian Gulf. While likely not comfortable for most investors, capital markets have generally reacted as one would expect given the major factors of the event — global equities faced downward pressure as oil prices surged and sovereign bond yields have moved higher as a result of energy-driven inflation worries. Yet an unlikely surprise has been gold.

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