Yesterday was the 100th trading day of 2023, and a productive 100 days for stocks it was. Through that 100th trading day on May 25, about 40% of the way through the year, the S&P 500 Index has gained a solid 8.1% (excluding dividends). That milestone on the calendar seems like a good time to look at what the strong start to the year might mean for the rest of 2023.

Since 1950, in years when the S&P 500 has been up at least 7% through the first 100 trading days, the average gain over the rest of the year has been a robust 9.4%, with the median slightly better at 10.0% (see table below). That compares to the average gain of

Economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk—even cash. And the big risk with cash is reinvestment risk. That is, while short-term rates are currently elevated, the risk is these rates won’t last and upon maturity, investors will have to reinvest proceeds at lower rates. And if this current cycle follows history, we could see lower core bond yields over the next year, which would mean cash-only investors may miss out on these higher yields. LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recommends investors maintain a

Another year, another showdown in the U.S. over raising the debt limit. For many readers, it may feel like we’re having the same conversations, rehashing the same talking points, and navigating the same risks on the debt ceiling as we have in past years past – a form of economic déjà vu. 

Speaking from an economist and investor’s viewpoint—and also as a columnist that has covered these debt ceiling standoffs on numerous occasions over the past several years—I can confirm that the debate itself is the same. It’s the balance of power in the U.S. government that changes. &n

First quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has caused us to regret titling our earnings preview commentary on April 10, “Malaise Continues.” While the “better than feared” label fit the past couple of earnings seasons quite well, based on the magnitude of upside surprises in the first quarter, and encouraging guidance from corporate America, that’s probably underselling it. There’s plenty to worry about the rest of the year (debt limit, recession, tightening financial conditions, a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy mistake, among them), but the risk of an additional sharp contraction in profit marg