One of the more interesting developments in the bond market last week, in our view, had less to do with the news itself and more to do with how the markets reacted to it.

My colleagues and I often talk about “news failures” or “news reversals.” These occur when a market receives a piece of information that should, at least on the surface, push prices decisively in one direction, but then either fails to respond as expected or initially moves the way everyone expects before abruptly reversing course. These types of reactions can be important because markets also trade on expectations, positioning, and suppl

Meta’s September launch of Muse, a personal artificial intelligence (AI) agent designed to act on a user’s behalf across digital workflows, crystallized the market’s latest disruption narrative. If AI can make consumer switching easier, which business models are truly protected by moats and which are merely monetizing friction? While we are skeptical that AI agents will disrupt businesses whose moats were earned through differentiated products, services, or brands, we do see potential disruption risk for businesses that largely benefit from consumer inertia, like forgetting to cancel subscriptions or not wanting to spend tim

In this month’s edition of the Equity Research team’s flagship “Beyond the Numbers” publication, we discuss the potential threat that personal artificial intelligence (AI) agents, like Meta Platforms’ (META) recently released Muse, pose for consumer facing online businesses. In the note, we touch upon how markets got it wrong with a similar narrative earlier this year. In today’s market article, we dive deeper into what happened and what can be learned from the “SaaSpocalypse”.

Markets are forward-looking, but they are not always patient. Earlier this year, investors rapidly embrace

Happy Anniversary bull market! October 12 marked the fourth anniversary of the bull market that began at the S&P 500’s closing low of 3,577 on October 12, 2022. Four years later, the index has more than doubled, an impressive run considering everything investors have endured along the way. The gain in the first four years on a price basis was 118%.

When we celebrated this bull market’s third birthday a year ago, we noted that history suggested the advance probably had more room to run. Well, history delivered. In the year ending October 12, 2026, the S&P 500 gained an impressive 19.2%.

That resili