The most dangerous investment mistakes often begin with an inability to imagine outcomes that differ from what the market expects. That does not mean investors should reflexively bet against strong trends, because momentum is real and great businesses can stay great for a long time, but when an investment thesis depends on outcomes that are inherently unknowable, imagination becomes a risk-management tool.

One useful exercise is steel-manning, which is simply taking the other side of an argument or debate and building the strongest version of it. Perhaps the most uncomfortable version of that exercise is imagining a future in whi

The term “resource nationalism” generally describes the deliberate effort by nation states to assert control over, direct, and secure access to natural resources within their borders or broader spheres of influence. It is rarely just about commodities themselves. Rather, it reflects a deeper strategic impulse where governments begin to view resource endowments as core to national power, economic resilience, and geopolitical advantage. Once that mindset takes hold, it does not remain confined to the resource sector alone. It propagates outward, reshaping policy frameworks, trade relationships, capital flows, and ultimately, the bro

The Changing of the Guard

Kevin Warsh, the new chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, has an initiative to modernize the way policy is developed, and he has established five task forces to evaluate the current process and deliver recommendations for improvement.

He framed the initiative around a simple reality: the U.S. economy looks very different today than it did a generation ago. With rapid technological change and shifting labor market dynamics, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is undertaking a broad review of how it conducts monetary policy. The five task forces have been charged with examining whether the cent

Coming into 2026, we expected inflation to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, the Fed to cut rates by roughly 75 basis points (bps), and Treasury yields to drift lower. Instead, the first half delivered three stress tests in rapid succession: a leadership change at the Fed, a geopolitical shock that sent oil prices and yields surging, and an AI buildout that is having a measurable impact on the corporate bond market — with the Fed leadership transition among one of our key themes for the balance of the year. While these tests are likely to linger throughout the rest of 2026, starting yields are still comfortably