6.6.22 Economy Slowing but Not Shrinking
Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a slowing economy is very different than a shrinking one.
Economy Slowing, Not Shrinking
We believe the domestic economy will continue to grow this year. Other than the anomaly in Q1 GDP (gross domestic product), we think the economy has sufficient momentum to offset the inflationary pressures. “Our base case forecast includes an inflation rate that moderates as supply bottlenecks im... Read more