One of my guiding investment philosophies is that headlines drive markets in the short term but over the long term it is fundamentals that drive markets. That has played out multiple times over the last year. There have been significant sell-offs due to tariff policy and the war in the Middle East. Yet the market rebounded not long after these declines based on an underlying strength in corporate earnings.

Rising markets make everyone feel better, but they also come with higher expectations. Today, the key question is not whether fundamentals are strong but whether the market’s consensus view is too optimistic. Currently, m

Most portfolio manager mistakes don’t feel reckless when they’re initially put into motion. The manager’s compelling track record and narrative over time leads to reasonable outlooks, portfolio themes, positioning, and trades. The story makes sense. Near term performance in these scenarios ranges from defensible to even impressive, and nothing appears broken yet from an outsider’s perspective.

A contrasting lens tends to be used when we view these mistakes in a backward-looking fashion. Often, lead portfolio managers and key investment professionals don’t fail because they lose skill or discipline. T

Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential risks. Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy muddles on, though supply chain disruptions, higher shipping costs, and elevated energy prices are current headwinds. In our view, however, these pressures pose a greater risk to inflation than to economic growth. Below, we outline the implications for businesses and consumers.

Another 0.2 and 0.3 Percentage Point Hit to Growth

Rising Conviction on Earnings Growth

In last month’s update, we highlighted a shift from preparation to action as market conditions began to support increased equity exposure. Since then, that positioning has become even more grounded in fundamentals, as earnings have demonstrated strong growth. The improved backdrop also reflects an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace and a market that has remained resilient through recent geopolitical uncertainty.

The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recently upgraded equities to overweight (by adding to small cap value), whi