Key Points:

• In an April 2025 speech¹, Kevin Warsh laid out a few important concepts that will likely define his leadership goals at the Federal Reserve (Fed) if he is confirmed as expected.

• According to Warsh, the Fed has expanded far beyond its statutory remit, from fiscal interventions (e.g., persistent quantitative easing) to political and cultural issues (climate, inclusion), weakening credibility and independence.

• Mission creep and failure to retrace emergency actions from 2008 onward have created “economic imprinting,” making the economy more fragile, increasing debt, and encouraging p

The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above ‑ trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near ‑ term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long ‑ run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short ‑ duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.

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As a wave of inclement weather sweeps across much of the U.S., investors are also navigating a seasonally important period for markets. Much like winter storms can influence travel patterns and economic activity early in the year, January’s market performance has long been viewed as a potential signal for what lies ahead. This concept, known as the “January Barometer,” suggests that market momentum established in the opening month often carries through the remainder of the year, making the first weeks of 2026 particularly important. With both the weather and markets in flux, investors are watching closely to see if January d

Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long ‑ run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it