The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.

Housing Stays Stuck

Start with housing, where softer demand for new homes should push the median price lower still, especially as mortgage rates climb. The median price of new single-family homes has been sliding. Even so, it remains

On the surface, the numbers appear exceptional. U.S. venture-backed companies raised more than $400 billion during the first half of 2026, more than all of 2025, and SpaceX's IPO helped produce the largest venture exit quarter on record. However, beneath those headlines, the backdrop is more nuanced. Most of the capital is flowing to artificial intelligence (AI) companies, and large, established managers are capturing a growing share of new fund commitments. For investors with access to the leading companies and managers, this environment may be attractive. For others, it can compound the risks already inherent in venture capital investin

There’s been no shortage of Treasury market headlines lately. Higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, weak Treasury auctions, and monetary policy changes and expectations have all played a part in driving yields to multi-decade highs (especially the long end). Rising rates and rapid Treasury refinancing are increasing interest costs and further tightening Washington’s already limited fiscal flexibility, and Treasury has taken note. But while Treasury buybacks can improve market liquidity, their limited scale cannot offset growing supply or persistent inflation concerns. Several warning signs are emerging, although current con

Broadly speaking, the directional drivers for stocks in September could be boiled down to the oil market, the bond market, and central banks. And not surprisingly, all three can influence each other. As the Iran conflict stretched through a seventh month, correlation data for oil prices and the S&P 500 suggests that equity markets grew increasingly sensitive to swings in crude (and geopolitical updates) as investors weighed ramps in both kinetic activity and hopes for diplomatic resolution. And while headlines have and will continue to focus on oil prices, market focus may also be shifting one step deeper to refined product availability &