Late last Friday, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) largely affirmed the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) May ruling blocking President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). We expect the decision to land at the Supreme Court and for a ruling to come early in 2026, so it’s not clear if any tariffs must be removed just yet. Based on what we’ve heard from the various courts that have heard this case so far, and the policy strategists we follow, we believe it’s more likely than not that the Supreme Court upholds the CAFC decision, but that is a v

As we reach the end of summer and head into fall, we examine LPL Research’s current tactical views as expressed in our Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA). Our Growth with Income (GWI) portfolio, which tracks most closely the traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio, is shown below, and compared to our GWI Diversified benchmark.

LPL Research Growth with Income (GWI) Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)

• Source: LPL Research 08/29/25
• Disclosure: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Equities vs Fixed Income: Tac

As summer winds down, many Americans experience a mix of emotions — saying goodbye to backyard barbecues, beach outings, camping trips, and rounds of golf, while welcoming cooler temperatures, the back-to-school season, and weekends filled with football. Similarly, the financial markets often shift gears in September, moving away from the quiet summer months marked by low trading volumes and limited volatility, and entering a period historically associated with seasonal weakness and increased market instability.

Of course, seasonal trends should always be viewed with caution — they reflect the broader market climate,

As we mentioned in our recent Midyear 2025 Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations, we expect bond market action to continue to swing between concerns over slowing economic data (lower yields) and larger debt/deficit dynamics (higher yields). But according to recent analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), tariff revenue could meaningfully impact both sides of the bond market pendulum, which on net, could be beneficial to the Treasury market.

As noted by the CBO, total government outlays for 2025 are roughly $7 trillion, with 2025 revenue equal to around $5.2 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of nearly