Following last weekend’s announcement of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to bring the war in the Middle East to an end, markets rallied and oil prices dropped. This reaction is logical given that elevated oil prices have contributed to accelerating inflation data. However, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June meeting reinforced that inflation remains a primary concern for policy makers.

This dynamic highlights the competing forces that currently shape markets. On one hand, easing geopolitical risk and falling oil prices support optimism. On the other hand, persistent inflation keeps pressure on the Fed to potentially tig

Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.

In simple terms, summer brings lighter new issuance as many state and local governments, along with underwriters, slow their activity during vacation periods. At the same time, investors receive a wave of cash from coupon paym

A hawkish debut. At his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh paired a hawkish, minimalist tone — tersely emphasizing price stability — with the launch of five task forces to review key aspects of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Many Fed governors want to follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and hike rates in the near term.

Uncertainty in projections. While officials’ projections show a split on future rate hikes and a higher path for rates, alongside elevated inflation forecasts, uncertainty remains high, underscored by Warsh’s decision not to submit projections. Importantly

Will Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels? It Depends on China’s Economic Growth

One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack. More than 100 days after the war in Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices remain surprisingly contained, and one such reason could be China’s sharp pullback from the crude market. According to Vortexa data,