6.8.26 Is Bad News Already Priced into the Bond Market?
Market adjustments and yields: Fixed income markets have absorbed significant geopolitical and economic developments in recent months, particularly since the escalation of the Iran conflict. Treasury yields have risen sharply, reflecting a combination of higher growth expectations, elevated term premia, and a notable repricing of monetary policy.
Inflation and economic resilience: Yet this adjustment has occurred without a breakout in long-term inflation expectations or a collapse in economic data. This dynamic suggests that a substantial portion of potential bad news — higher-for-longer rates, persistent but contained infl
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