9.20.21 Revisiting Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast
Until recently, we expected the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year between 1.75% and 2.0%. Now, however, there are two key elements suggesting we are unlikely to see significantly higher interest rates by year end: The Delta variant’s impact on economic growth expectations, and the continued demand for U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors. As such, our new year-end target for the 10-year Treasury yield is between 1.50% and 1.75%.
Coming into the year, and into our 2021 mid-year outlook, we expected Treasury yields would move higher than current levels. Higher inflation expectations, less involvement in the b... Read more