Raise your hand if you’ve encountered this headline recently: “Market Drops Sharply on Fears of Wider Mideast War”. What about this one: “Stocks Fall as Oil Prices Hit New Highs”? Or this: “Wall Street Sees Volatile Session Amid Uncertainty”? Odds are good that your hand went up (or at least it would have if you were playing along). Of course, we’ve all been exposed to the concerning headlines lately, felt uncertain, and maybe even had a knee jerk reaction to sell assets and hoard cash. But what if we told you those headlines are over 35 years old? Yup, those are New York Times banners from Augu

The ongoing situation in the Middle East continues to drive markets in the short term. Oil production and shipping channels remain the focal point from an investor’s perspective as surging crude prices have led to concerns about the potential for accelerating inflation and higher interest rates. Until there is greater clarity around the duration of the conflict, this dynamic will remain critical to economic growth. My LPL colleagues have done an excellent job covering that topic, so let us switch gears and consider another topic that could be an issue for investors, if and when the military tensions begin to subside — midterm elec

All Eyes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Investors’ attention remains squarely focused on Iran, as it should be. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading near $100 per barrel, more than $40 above the recent mid-December low as tanker ships are still not sailing freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is allowing its own tankers to get through, not surprisingly, sending important oil to China (China imports about 90% of Iranian oil exports). Reportedly Iran has allowed tankers bound for several other Asian countries including India and Pakistan to traverse the vital and dangerous waterway, easing some pressure on

Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.

Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation. If energy costs stay elevated, inflation could rise again, potentially delaying interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Geopolitical uncertainty remains a