Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential risks. Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy muddles on, though supply chain disruptions, higher shipping costs, and elevated energy prices are current headwinds. In our view, however, these pressures pose a greater risk to inflation than to economic growth. Below, we outline the implications for businesses and consumers.

Another 0.2 and 0.3 Percentage Point Hit to Growth

Rising Conviction on Earnings Growth

In last month’s update, we highlighted a shift from preparation to action as market conditions began to support increased equity exposure. Since then, that positioning has become even more grounded in fundamentals, as earnings have demonstrated strong growth. The improved backdrop also reflects an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace and a market that has remained resilient through recent geopolitical uncertainty.

The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recently upgraded equities to overweight (by adding to small cap value), whi

A common approach by investors is to invest in funds that have historically outperformed their benchmark index, hoping that a fund’s past outperformance will continue. Our research finds this approach can often work — until it doesn’t. We see a persistence effect in fund performance data, whereby funds with strong three-year performance often have another three-years of good performance in the following period. But when the relationship breaks down, it is often painful. The prior winners tend to become losers around big inflection points in the market, such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2022 sell-off for stocks

Many have drawn the comparison between the current AI buildout with the dotcom period in the late 1990s, when the infrastructure for the internet was built. It’s a sensible comparison to make because of the massive amount of capital deployed to commercialize the buildout of revolutionary and life-changing technology. It’s also a reasonable comparison to make because technology stocks drove one of the biggest stock market rallies in history more than 25 years ago, and some are using similar language today when discussing the potential (and we underscore potential) of AI and bidding up the valuations of AI companies poised to benefi