A hawkish debut. At his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh paired a hawkish, minimalist tone — tersely emphasizing price stability — with the launch of five task forces to review key aspects of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Many Fed governors want to follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and hike rates in the near term.

Uncertainty in projections. While officials’ projections show a split on future rate hikes and a higher path for rates, alongside elevated inflation forecasts, uncertainty remains high, underscored by Warsh’s decision not to submit projections. Importantly

Will Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels? It Depends on China’s Economic Growth

One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack. More than 100 days after the war in Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices remain surprisingly contained, and one such reason could be China’s sharp pullback from the crude market. According to Vortexa data,

“In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes”

– Benjamin Franklin

… “and your investment manager hitting a patch of underperformance”

– LPL Research (only partly in jest)

According to our latest study of active management, 96% of active U.S. equity mutual funds with a 10-year record had at least one three-year period of underperformance relative to their assigned benchmark at some point over the last 10 years. This same set of funds outperformed in roughly half (47%) of the periods. So, while active management was not poor overall

The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window. The potential 2026 class is unusual not only because of the number of companies considering public listings, but because several would be large enough to matter for major equity indexes, passive fund flows, and the broader market narrative around artificial intelligence (AI).

An important piece of framing we’d like to re-ite