The Treasury market is stuck between artificial intelligence (AI)-driven job displacement and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Earlier in the year, Treasury yields fell sharply as investors weighed the possibility that accelerated AI adoption could slow economic growth by displacing labor. As we noted in our recent Rate and Credit View: When AI Disruption Meets Leveraged Balance Sheets: Credit Market Risks in the Software Sector, AI is rapidly reshaping credit risks across the software as a service (SaaS) sector, shifting market attention from the demand benefits enjoyed by hyperscalers to the challenges facing highly leveraged enterprise softwa

In our 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine, we listed several risks to stocks that could prevent the S&P 500 from achieving our forecast for high-single-digit returns in 2026 (to a fair value target range of 7,300–7,400). One was narrow stock market leadership. Well, as mega cap technology leadership faded in recent months, the cyclicals and defensives picked up the slack. The traditional market-cap-weighted S&P 500 Index is down 1.5% year to date as of March 6, 2026, but the average stock in the index is up 3.2%. 

Another risk we cited was a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Although scrutiny on AI an

Managed futures strategies, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) or trend-followers, are designed for environments where macro shifts drive persistent price trends across equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets. As geopolitical risk has spiked due to the conflict with Iran, the current backdrop will present a unique test for investment strategies.

Current Positioning

Using the SG Trend Indicator from Societe Generale Prime Services as an industry proxy, the most recent positioning by asset class is below. Note, depending on a manager’s individual contracts traded and portfolio construction process, exp

As with the recent escalation in the Middle East, financial markets are constantly exposed to unpredictable events — from geopolitical conflicts and terror attacks to political transitions, corporate crises, and systemic financial shocks. While each new development tends to generate uncertainty and anxiety, history consistently shows that markets are far more resilient than most investors expect.

Reviewing market reactions across more than eight decades of market history helps us understand how stocks typically behave when the unexpected happens, and which conditions matter most to determine the likely depth and duration of