Business investment remains a critical component for this economic expansion.

Capital expenditures (capex) drive productivity gains (more output per hour worked), which enables economic growth while keeping inflation contained. That helps keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) at bay.

We received an important data point on business investment yesterday, August 25. While headline durable goods orders beat expectations, demand for aircraft drove the increase. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell by 0.4%, and the prior month’s figure was revised down to 0.8% from 1%.

On a year-over-year basis,

When Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell speaks, markets listen. Friday, August 23, the markets had a new opportunity to gauge the Fed’s direction when Powell gave a closely watched speech at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, WY. This was Powell’s first opportunity to follow up on the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July 30-31 policy meeting, where the Fed cut its main policy rate for the first time since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The minutes revealed general consensus among the meeting attendees that a cut was necessary, as well as a lively debate about the overall future path of rat

U.S. leading indicators rebounded in July, a good sign for the durability of the expansion.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% month over month, the biggest gain since September 2018, and above consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Leading Indicators Slowing But Growing, the LEI climbed 1.6% year over year.

The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over year before all nine recessions since 1955

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July meeting, released August 21, show the complexity of policymakers’ discussions leading up to the first rate cut of this economic cycle.

Policymakers debated what to do amid strong consumer spending, a solid labor market, tepid inflation, sluggish business investment, financial stability, global risks, and the persistent headwind of trade uncertainty. Ultimately, the Fed announced a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate reduction after a vote with two dissents (Fed presidents Esther George from Kansas City and Eric Rosengren from Boston).

The minutes also reinforced Fed C