September is historically known as one of the worst for stocks, yet in 2019 the S&P 500 Index is up 2.7% so far amid a sea of scary headlines. Incredibly, the S&P 500 has wavered less than 0.1% from its previous close 6 of the past 10 trading sessions, as it consolidates just beneath all-time highs.

“Over the past two weeks we’ve had the European Central Bank meeting, the Federal Reserve meeting, higher inflation, a historic jump in crude oil, Middle East turmoil, trouble in the repo market, and even multiple NFL quarterbacks sustaining major injuries,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan De

U.S. leading indicators were unchanged in August, following a 0.4% increase in July.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) was flat month over month, beating Bloomberg estimates of a 0.1% decline. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Slower, But Continued, Growth, the LEI climbed 1.1% year over year. This marks a new low since the 2016 downturn, as the index rolled off strong readings from a year prior.

The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over

“History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” Mark Twain

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (.25%) to a target range of 1.75%–2%. This comes on the heels of the first rate cut in more than 10 years at the end of July. This cut is somewhat more controversial, however, because the overall U.S. economic data has been improving, and there’s been a tick higher in inflation.

One of the most important questions heading into this meeting was how many voting Fed members would support additional rate cuts. There were two dissenting v

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee starts its sixth two-day policy meeting of the year today. At 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, following the meeting’s conclusion, the Fed will announce its rate decision and release a brief policy statement, accompanied by new economic projections. This will be followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Market Widely Expects A Second Rate Cut On September 18, the Fed is widely expected to lower its policy rate 0.25% to a target range of 1.75–2%, following the first cut of the cycle in July. With a 0.25% cut largely baked i