Next week could bring the third government shutdown of 2018, especially after the fireworks out of Washington yesterday. In a widely watched live TV debate, President Trump sparred with Senate Minority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Pelosi regarding funding for the proposed wall on the Mexican border and potentially shutting down the government.

What exactly does a shutdown mean for stocks? “Although shutdowns get a lot of media hype, the reality is that stocks tend to take them in stride. In fact, the S&P 500 has gained during each of the five previous shutdowns,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detri

We view last week’s market decline as a retest of the October–November lows. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.6% last week, leaving the index in line with the low of the autumn correction and 10% off the September highs [Figure 1]. Losses were driven primarily by three issues: the risk that U.S.-China trade talks fall apart, concerns about a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy mistake, and sharply lower oil prices, all of which contributed to increasing concerns about slowing global growth or potential recession. This week, we summarize our views on these issues and discuss prospects for a potential stock market rebound based on technical an

While the broad outline of a negotiating period was a positive takeaway from the trade agreement between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit, details remain elusive. Headlines following the meeting signaled a meaningful cooling of tensions as the Trump administration put a hold on further tariff increases during the negotiating period, and both sides raised their commitment to making progress on key issues. However, conflicting details contained in official statements and administration comments from both sides reminded markets of the potential challenges to finding common ground. Both sides continued to express optimism

It was a great week for the stock market. The S&P 500 Index rallied 4.9% last week, leaving the index less than 6% from its record high, on September 20, 2018 (excluding today’s gains) [Figure 1]. Gains were driven by increasing optimism (now proven to be warranted) for progress on U.S.-China trade talks at the G20 summit over the weekend and a more dovish outlook from Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell. This week we share our thoughts on these major market-moving events and reiterate our positive stock market outlook.

Trade Truce

The market is focused primarily on two things right now: trade and the Fede