Last week was a tough week for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index down 4.5%, the worst performance since March. So what are some things investors should consider? To help answer that question, here are five takeaways on the near-term outlook for stocks.

• We continue to see the U.S-China trade dispute as the biggest headwind for stocks. Understandably, stocks threw a tantrum last week after U.S. trade officials walked back part of the overly optimistic recount of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit. We continue to view the emergence of a path toward progress favorably and expect an agreement in the coming months, despite mixed mes

Last week, dovish language from the Federal Reserve (Fed) fueled one of the strongest rallies in U.S. stocks this year. On November 28, the S&P 500 Index posted its biggest daily gain since March and the U.S. dollar dropped the most in two weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said current interest rates are “just below neutral,” referring to the point where monetary policy is neither accommodative nor restrictive for the economy.

Powell’s comments, along with Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s speech the day before, restored investors’ confidence in the Fed’s commitment to flexibility  &m

Corporate America produced another outstanding earnings season. We expected another quarter of strong earnings growth, and corporate America delivered even more than we anticipated. Third quarter numbers were excellent, even if the boost from the new tax law is excluded, as has been the case throughout this year. Revenue and earnings upside compared with expectations was particularly impressive, making prior assertions of an earnings growth peak premature. We’re also impressed by the resilience of companies’ outlooks in the face of tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.

By the Numbers

S&P 500 Index earni

Business capital expenditures (capex) have grown solidly over the past two years after an oil-related contraction in 2015 and 2016. Part of the turnaround has been a natural rebound from those two years of slowdown, but fiscal stimulus is also playing an increasingly important role. Tax and spending packages passed in late 2017 and early 2018 have provided the economy with a $350 billion windfall that has helped raise business confidence and boost firms’ earnings, leading them to focus more on investing in their businesses for future growth [Figure 1]. Changes in tax laws have also allowed businesses to expense capital purchases, making