Business capital expenditures (capex) have grown solidly over the past two years after an oil-related contraction in 2015 and 2016. Part of the turnaround has been a natural rebound from those two years of slowdown, but fiscal stimulus is also playing an increasingly important role. Tax and spending packages passed in late 2017 and early 2018 have provided the economy with a $350 billion windfall that has helped raise business confidence and boost firms’ earnings, leading them to focus more on investing in their businesses for future growth [Figure 1]. Changes in tax laws have also allowed businesses to expense capital purchases, making

In last week’s midterm election, Republicans held onto the Senate and the Democrats claimed control of the House, bringing potential gridlock to Congress. This week we discuss some investment implications, including highlighting the positive seasonal tailwinds now in place for stocks. We also discuss potential winners and losers at the sector level post-election, and some risks that the leadership change in Washington may present. Most importantly, with the election out of the way, we welcome the opportunity to focus on fundamentals, which we believe remain quite positive.

The Best News First

Perhaps the best news is tha

The U.S.-China trade dispute has carried on for about eight months, with no agreement in sight. To date, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on about $250 billion in Chinese goods, representing about half of what the U.S. imported from China last year. In turn, China has retaliated with its own tariffs on $100 billion in imported U.S. goods.

So far, the global economy has avoided a trade breakdown, as exports and imports are growing steadily for both the U.S. and China. However, small cracks are forming in the global economy due to the indirect impact of trade tensions, and leading trends show a prolonged dispute or more severe tariffs

The potential outcomes of the midterm elections have been dominating the news cycle lately, and we know from history that the markets typically do not like uncertainty. With the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate, we expect this clarity may bring some reassurance for investors.

Throughout the course of 2018, we have been expecting a return to more normal levels of market volatility (after experiencing very little in late 2016 and 2017), driven by forces such as economic growth, inflation concerns, rising interest rates, trade tensions, and political u