Tensions around U.S. monetary policy remain high as recession fears grow and markets seek further reassurance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is prepared to slow or stop future rate hikes as needed. The Fed will meet this week and make a rate announcement on Wednesday, January 30. Policymakers’ last rate announcement rattled investors, who have watched global economic data deteriorate, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on flexibility have calmed markets. Although the bulk of U.S. data remains solid, growing uncertainty over several issues leaves the Fed with a delicate balancing act as it decides its next policy steps.

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Brexit uncertainty continues to cloud Europe’s economy. On January 15, more than two-thirds of the U.K. Parliament voted against British Prime Minister Theresa May’s European Union (EU) separation deal, another bump in the road for “Brexit.” That outcome had been anticipated, though the wide margin underscored the tough road ahead. Even though May survived a no-confidence vote the next day, the margin was narrow, and the path forward remains unclear.

Here we discuss potential market implications of the United Kingdom’s ongoing effort to leave the EU. We also share our updated views on European equiti

Recent U.S. economic data have sent a lot of conflicting signals. Jobs data, pricing data, and corporate earnings reflect a solidly growing domestic economy with manageable inflation, but manufacturing reports show a downturn in demand that points to potential weakness ahead. Wall Street’s economic outlook is more clouded than at any point of the cycle, so this week, we’ve turned to Main Street for direction via the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book survey.

Healthy, but High Uncertainty

The Beige Book, a qualitative assessment of the domestic economy and each of the 12 Fed districts, is prepared eight time

Fourth quarter earnings reporting begins this week. Over the next five days (January 14–18), 35 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report quarterly results, highlighted by several big banks. Here we preview fourth quarter earnings, discuss several key drivers, and share some thoughts on the outlook for 2019. We expect a mid-to-high-teens increase in earnings for the quarter, driven primarily by the solid economic backdrop.

The Numbers

Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters are for a 14.5% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings for the quarter, which is slower than the 25% pace of the past three quarter