Monday’s big down day was a harsh reminder of how markets actually can produce volatility. It was the worst day of the year for the Dow and only the second drop of 1% or more for the S&P 500 Index in just over two months.

As we noted recently in Three Things That Worry Us, there are many reasons to think that after more than a 90% rally (and virtually a double on a total return basis), the S&P 500 could finally be ready for a break. From less stocks participating, to weak seasonality, to a lack of bears, to typical choppiness during year two of a bull market, the summer months could be ripe for an eventual pullback

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced yesterday that the COVID-19 recession is over. If things don’t feel all that different, it’s because they announced the recession ended in April 2020. Yes, that’s last year. We are now in the 15th month of the new expansion. This delay is perfectly normal. NBER doesn’t change a recession call once it’s made, so they need to have a high degree of confidence in the supporting data. Waiting until 15 months after the recession is over is actually the average since they started making recession calls in real time in the 1970s.

“Stock markets

It is hard to believe we have passed the halfway point of 2021. After a 2020 that would never end, the first six months of 2021 flew by. With the second half underway, we have updated our views of the markets and economy in LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking up Speed. Below we provide a summary of those expectations covering the economy, policy, stocks and bonds.

Economy: Speeding Ahead

The U.S. economy has surprised nearly everyone to the upside as it speeds along thanks to vaccinations, reopening, and record stimulus. The growth rate of the U.S. economy may have peaked in the second quarter of 2021, but th

Index Performance

U.S. and International Equities

This quarter provided positive results for all major market indexes. The top performer and standout was the growth-laden Nasdaq composite, which returned over 9% for the quarter. The international developed and emerging markets, as denoted by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Europe, Australasia, Far East (EAFE) and Emerging Markets (EM) indexes, both finished the quarter higher.

Red Hot Real Estate

After strong performance this quarter, real estate is gaining ground in becoming one of this year’s top performing se