2020 has been historic and devastating in many ways, from the fastest bear market ever, to one of the greatest stock market recoveries ever. Not to mention a historic drop in the economy in the second quarter, with likely a record jump due in the third quarter. With so many things happening, it is easy to forget this is also an election year. As we inch closer to the highly anticipated vote, we expect more focus to move to November 3.

Here’s the catch—stocks very well could be one of the best indicators to show who will win. “It is actually quite simple; when stocks gained the three months before the election, t

Leading economic indicators continued to rebound in June, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in May.

Yesterday, The Conference Board released its June report detailing the latest reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of data series that tend to lead changes in economic activity. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, since the index’s April trough it has posted historically elevated back-to-back monthly increases, rising 2% in June following May’s 3.2% advance. Still, the index has only recovered to an absolute level of 102 compared with January’s all time high of 112.

”Ye

While the 10-year Treasury yield has traded in a narrow range since early April, the equivalent real yield, represented by the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), has continued to fall and could go lower. Real yields remove the impact of inflation. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, while the 10-year Treasury set a new all-time low for yields way back in February, declining 10-year TIPS yields are still above where they were in late 2012.

Falling real yields tell a story. Often it means lower growth expectations, but it can also mean higher inflation expectations, especially with expectations comin

This earnings season may be one to forget. We will see one of the biggest year-over-year quarterly declines in S&P 500 Index profits ever, and we will hear a lot about uncertainty facing corporate America as COVID-19 continues to impact many companies in the United States and globally.  But it may not all be negative.

Estimates May Be Too Low

The unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 lockdowns and widespread withdrawal of corporate guidance has set up an unpredictable earnings season. The magnitude of the decline we are likely to see may make this an earnings season to forget. 

As tough as it is to