Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic. Tight financial conditions, slowing economic growth, and a disinflationary trend all support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pivot away from tightening monetary policy to easing in the new year. Despite these longer term trends, rates possibly got ahead of themselves in recent weeks, exhibiting higher volatility.

Supply Chain Shocks Not the Same Magnitude as Pandemic Ones 

The global economy experienced multiple shocks in recent times from the Russian attacks on Ukraine, atrocities in the Mi

Key Takeaways  

Not accounting for inflation, December online sales rose 9.7% from a year ago as consumers focused their attention on non-store shopping.  

Restaurant spending grew by over 11% from last year as consumers seem unfazed with higher restaurant prices. However, spending was roughly unchanged from last month. 

Excluding auto sales, retail spending was up 0.4% month-over-month on a nominal basis. Adjusting for inflation, sales ex-autos rose 0.1%. 

Consumers shunned brick-and-mortar stores in favor of online shopping. The behavioral change that happened

Fourth quarter earnings season kicked off last week, and markets were generally left wanting more. That doesn’t necessarily mean this earnings season will be disappointing, especially considering the bar has been lowered so much. Plus, some of the disappointment was around special bank charges and November-quarter-end companies’ results were solid. This reporting period may lack the splashy “earnings recession over” headlines we got last quarter, but it takes on added importance because it sets the tone for 2024. After 2023 was a year in which improving valuations delivered strong gains, this year, earnings will likely

Earnings season last week and this week is all about financials. The early reports were a bit messy, with earnings dragged down by special bank charges to replenish the FDIC deposit insurance fund following last year’s bank failures.  

LPL Research still thinks a respectable 5% increase in S&P 500 Index earnings per share overall is achievable given low analyst expectations. But one big determining factor in whether that upside materializes will be the “Magnificent Seven.” That is, the big seven tech companies, which sit atop the S&P 500 Index are expected to collectively grow earnings 46% in t