Key Talking Points 

• Reported this morning, October inflation rose 0.2% from a month ago, the same monthly pace as July, August, and September as inflation is finding its balance.

• Despite the fairly steady monthly pace of inflation, the annual rate rose to 2.6% and is attributed to abnormal and large declines in gas prices back in October 2023. It does not appear to be signaling a new trend but rather base effects.  

• The sticky components of inflation continue to ease, giving the Fed some leeway to cut rates next month, but they could pause in January. The strength of s

With Donald Trump’s recent presidential election victory, the landscape for alternative investments may be poised for meaningful changes. While future shifts in policy are far from certain and will likely remain ambiguous well into 2025, we have been actively considering their potential effects and specifically, which alternative investments may be impacted.

• Tax Policies and Corporate Earnings. One of the immediate effects of a Trump presidency is the potential extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is set to expire at the end of 2025. This could lead to lower corporate tax rates over the long-term, which may

On October 12, 2022, there were very few comments suggesting that a new bull market was in the throes of being born as the S&P 500 opened at 3,590.83 and closed at 3,577.03.

After all, inflation was still running hot even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its rate-hiking campaign on March 16, 2022, by raising rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and moving to a 50-basis-point hike on May 5, 2022, as it tried to quell inflationary pressures. By mid-June, a series of 75-basis-point hikes were introduced as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked in June at 9.1%.

The October 13 rally that ended the bear market at a l

September didn’t live up to its reputation as a scary month for stocks. As the calendar now turns to October, we examine seasonality data to assess whether the month is more likely to deliver a trick or a treat for stock market investors.  

After an extremely poor start, during which stocks — as measured by the S&P 500 Index — were down over 4% and saw the worst weekly return since early 2023, this September eventually bucked the historic seasonal trend of being the worst month of the year for stocks and finished up by over 2%. Stocks were boosted over 6% from the intra-month lows by an aggressive