The first half of the year was a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher-quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the “higher for longer” narrative has kept a lid on any sort of bond market rally. While falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities, which has been the traditional goal of fixed income investors. Investors can best navigate the late-cycle economic envir

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches and Americans prepare to vote, polls show a close race based on various polls in key six swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Amid all the attention on President Joe Biden’s debate performance and Donald Trump’s legal challenges, we believe key issues such as the federal deficit, foreign policy, healthcare, immigration, taxes, and trade will ultimately determine the outcome of the election — all big issues on which both parties disagree and that can affect the economy and financial markets. Although abortion is not an economic issue,

With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains. LPL Research believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second qua

Key Takeaways

• Equity markets are enjoying a backdrop of extremely low volatility, supported by decelerating inflation, the prospect of less restrictive monetary policy, enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, and resilient corporate earnings and economic growth.

• Periods of low implied volatility have historically produced above-average equity market returns. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has generated six- and 12-month respective returns of 8.8% and 13.6% after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed within its first quintile group (below 13.21).

• However, seasonal VIX trends and rising expectations for in