As we enter the final weeks of 2024, one of the strongest alternative investment strategies this year has been equity market neutral investing. Through the end of November, the HFRI Equity Market Neutral Index has gained 10.2%, with a beta to the S&P 500 of only 0.04. As compared to the rest of the alternative investment sub-strategies, only the HFRI Equity Hedge Index has performed better, albeit this index has a consistently higher beta profile which is especially valuable when the broader market is up over 25% on the year.  

HFRI Sub-Strategy Returns Through 11/30/2024

The champagne popped yesterday after the Nasdaq Composite Index (CCMP) rallied 1.8% and surpassed the 20,000-point milestone for the first time. Strength from most of its mega-cap components underpinned yesterday’s rally, a common theme since the tech-heavy index bottomed at 10,213 back in 2022. Since then, the CCMP has added 96% (as of December 11), with NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Alphabet (GOOG/L) contributing to roughly two-thirds of the overall gain. (NVDA alone has added around 18%.)  

With the index marching to another new high yesterday, the n

Key Highlights

- The latest release from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows small businesses plan to put their capital spending into overdrive.
- Further, overall optimism spiked to the highest since June 2021 and is now close to pre-pandemic levels.
- The percentage of businesses planning to increase capital spending in the very near term rose to 28%, the highest since January 2022, when companies were spending a lot to accommodate hybrid workers.
- But 2025 capital spending plans are not uniformly positive across industries. Chevron (CVX) plans to lower spending relative to 2024 but others such as MDU Resourc...
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Looking back, 2024 was another strong year for stocks. The market was driven higher by unwavering trends in technology, an enduring economy with moderating inflation, Fed rate cuts, and the prospect of investor-friendly policies from the incoming administration. As we look towards the stock market in 2025, here are some key considerations for equity investors:

Varied upside potential: If they persist, a combination of moderating inflation, stable interest rates, and strong earnings growth supports a higher S&P 500 valuation. Our fair value target range for 2025 is 6,275 to 6,375 based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 and our new 2026