While the new Donald Trump administration is still assembling, the outgoing Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, left a reminder that government business waits for no one. In a recent letter to lawmakers, Yellen warned that the U.S. would hit its debt ceiling today (January 21) and that the Treasury Department will begin “extraordinary measures” to stave off the threat of a technical default.

The debt limit — commonly called the debt ceiling — is the maximum amount of debt the Treasury Department can issue. The amount is set through Congress and has been regularly increased over the years to finance the gover

Earnings season is underway and, thanks to the banks, it’s off to a good start. Currently, consensus estimates are calling for a strong 12% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Steady economic growth should be enough for corporate America to beat these estimates, but upside will likely be limited due to several headwinds, including currency. Regulatory, trade, and immigration policies will be a major focus for analysts and investors in the weeks ahead, where this earnings season may bring more questions than answers. Policy developments will have a lot to do with whether Wall St

Outsized returns, record highs on nearly a weekly cadence, and low volatility were three major themes of price action in 2024. The S&P 500 posted a total of 57 record highs, marking the fifth-highest number of new highs in a calendar year since 1950. Furthermore, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) averaged only 15.5 on a daily closing basis in 2024, well below its historical average close of 19.5 and ranking as the 12th lowest average annual VIX since 1990.

Given the mostly one-way direction of stocks last year and the limited degree of drawdowns experienced on the S&P 500, last year’s price action may seem like an out

Key Takeaways:

• Annual inflation accelerated up to 2.9% in December from higher energy and food prices.
• Stripping out food and energy, core inflation rose 0.2% from a month ago, less than expected and bringing annual core inflation down to 3.2%.
• Airfares rose 3.9% in December, perhaps playing some catch-up from the minimal rise in November. We know from TSA throughput data that demand for travel is still very high, putting upward pressure on travel costs.
• Medical care prices are softening, and prescription drug prices were unchanged in December.
• In a separate release this morning, manufacturers in the New York region reported a s