Real rates (yields minus expected inflation) crossed into negative territory last week, garnering attention from the financial press as an additional signal of an economy at risk.

But, as shown in LPL Research’s Chart of the day, Real Yields Have Been Here Before, the message from real yields may be more benign. While real yields could be a warning of a slowing economy and some added economic stress, they have not acted as a reliable recession signal for the current cycle, and they were above 2% heading into the 2008–09 recession. (Real yields are estimated by the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securiti

Takeaways From Second Quarter Earnings Season

We would say the most important takeaway from the now-completed second quarter earnings season is that earnings are still growing and an earnings recession appears to be off the table for now. While FactSet’s math said the S&P 500 Index overall produced flat EPS year over year, other sources such as Refinitiv (former Thomson Reuters) reported operating earnings growth of over 3%. Boeing’s multi-billion charge during the quarter detracted 1.5% from S&P 500 EPS by itself, which appears to be a unique event that shouldn’t recur.

Overall, we think corporate

August’s jobs report was weaker than expected, showing that corporate hiring has slowed a bit recently.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 130,000 in August, below consensus expectations for a 164,000 gain despite a 25,000 bump from temporary jobs related to the 2020 Census. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Jobs Growth Slows in August, July’s job increase was also revised down to 159,000, pulling the 12-month average payroll change down to a still-solid 173,000.

We still see tailwinds for the U.S. labor market, though. Payrolls are still growing at an above-average trend for the cycle (when looking

We remain fans of diversification, including geographic diversification for suitable equity portfolios. Sticking with that approach has been trying in recent years, however.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Struggles for International Stocks Continue, stocks in developed foreign markets, represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, have trailed those in the United States significantly and consistently for the past decade. The story is the same for emerging market (EM) stocks.

We maintain developed international equity allocations in our strategic portfolios with long time horizons. At some point, the tide w