On March 1, 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would be imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. The S&P 500 Index fell 2% on the news before rallying over the last two hours of trading to finish the day down 1.3%. Uncertainty extended into Friday, with the S&P 500 down over 1% early, then rallying over the remainder of the trading day to finish with a gain of over 0.5%. In this week’s commentary, we look at the potential economic impact of the announced tariffs, evaluate the equity market’s response, and, while not our base case, look at what it would take for equity

March Madness for Central Banks

The month of March is generally eventful and provides us with multiple potential market-moving events to monitor. It has been a roller coaster of a year so far, with one of the strongest January returns ever for the S&P 500 Index, only to be followed by the fastest descent ever from record highs to a correction (nine days) in early February. As we turn the calendar to March, the days will get longer and a little warmer, and basketball brackets will be released.

To help investors cope with the distractions of March Madness and stay on top of the latest in the financial markets, we have create

Fourth quarter earnings season has been outstanding. As good as it has been, perhaps most impressive is the strong guidance corporate America has provided. In response, we have raised our S&P 500 Index earnings forecast for 2018 and our S&P 500 year-end fair value target proportionately. Our revised year-end S&P 500 fair value range of 2950–3000, approximately 7–9% above Friday’s close, represents a 19.5 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio on $152.50 in earnings per share (EPS).

Strong Company Guidance

Fourth quarter earnings growth of over 15% reported by S&P 500 companies is outstanding, in our opi

Are we out of the woods yet? After the fastest correction from a record high in the history of the S&P 500 Index, stocks staged an impressive comeback last week. The S&P 500 put together its best week since 2013, rallying more than 5% off the lows to bring its session win streak to six. This week we consider what this means moving forward, including what higher interest rates and rising inflation might mean for stocks.

Strong Fundamentals

Whether we are out of the woods yet is a tough question to answer with any confidence, but when we weigh the evidence, it appears the odds are good that the worst is behind us.

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