U.S. leading indicators were unchanged in August, following a 0.4% increase in July.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) was flat month over month, beating Bloomberg estimates of a 0.1% decline. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Slower, But Continued, Growth, the LEI climbed 1.1% year over year. This marks a new low since the 2016 downturn, as the index rolled off strong readings from a year prior.

The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over

“History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” Mark Twain

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (.25%) to a target range of 1.75%–2%. This comes on the heels of the first rate cut in more than 10 years at the end of July. This cut is somewhat more controversial, however, because the overall U.S. economic data has been improving, and there’s been a tick higher in inflation.

One of the most important questions heading into this meeting was how many voting Fed members would support additional rate cuts. There were two dissenting v

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee starts its sixth two-day policy meeting of the year today. At 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, following the meeting’s conclusion, the Fed will announce its rate decision and release a brief policy statement, accompanied by new economic projections. This will be followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Market Widely Expects A Second Rate Cut On September 18, the Fed is widely expected to lower its policy rate 0.25% to a target range of 1.75–2%, following the first cut of the cycle in July. With a 0.25% cut largely baked i

Equities continued to rise this week, sending the S&P 500 Index back over the 3,000 level and near its record high of 3,027.98 set July 26. Easing trade fears, bold measures from the European Central Bank (ECB), and strong retail sales all helped buoy investment sentiment.

The United States granted China a two-week reprieve for previously announced tariff hikes as a goodwill measure ahead of the 70th anniversary celebration of the People’s Republic. China responded with some tariff exemptions and re-committing to U.S. agriculture purchases. News that the Trump administration is considering an interim trade deal added op