U.S. stocks’ rally paused this week as investors processed another batch of trade headlines. The S&P 500 Index declined for the first time in seven weeks, breaking the benchmark’s longest winning streak since November 2017. Equities dropped on Tuesday after U.S. lawmakers passed a bill in support of Hong Kong protesters, leading China to threaten retaliation if the bill becomes law. Then, reports released on Wednesday suggested the United States and China may not finalize a limited trade agreement by the end of the year. Trade headlines turned more optimistic on Thursday, but the brightened prospects weren’t enough to pu

October’s leading indicators show the domestic economy could be bottoming.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1% in October, following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in September. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the LEI grew 0.3% year over year last month, tying June 2016 for the slowest growth of the expansion. Historically, year-over-year declines have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, so we monitor this metric in our Five Forecasters.

Even though the gauge barely eked out a year-over-year gain last month, we see signs that the worst may be over

An upbeat economic outlook may be edging out elevated downside risks in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision-making.

Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting showed policymakers discussed both dynamics at length, as they have at several meetings this year. The Fed ended up reducing the fed funds rate by 0.25%, citing low inflation and downside risks as reasons to lower the policy rate for a third time this economic cycle.

The Fed’s evaluation of the economy and risks in October largely mirrored past meetings, but participants agreed to remove the “act as appropriate” language in the post-m

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett

The S&P 500 Index has trended higher in an unusually persistent fashion recently. The benchmark has notched 10 record-high closes over the past four weeks, including four straight through November 18.

It’s human nature to get nervous when market conditions are too calm, especially with an uncertain outlook and an aging bull market. However, we urge investors not to lose sight of their goals.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 has consistently powered past record highs.