After a seasonally weak first quarter, expectations have been ramping up for the U.S. economy, which is now in the midst of its longest expansion since World War II. The first look at real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter will be r

We believe that the global growth story will continue in 2018, with an expectation of 3.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the world economy, thanks to new fiscal policies and improved business vitality. We continue to expect the U.S. economy

Increased business capital expenditures, or “capex,” remain one of the most important pieces for improving the long-term growth trajectory of the U.S. economy. Capital expenditures help increase productivity, and improved productivity is

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hike rates for the second time in 2018 at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, June 13. Given that the hike is all but priced in, the hike itself would mean little to markets. Inst

The May employment report confirmed that the job market remains healthy, with job creation showing signs of stabilizing after steadily slowing over the last several years. A healthy labor market should continue to provide support for the economy and

The Federal Reserve (Fed) reassured markets that its rake hike pace would remain gradual with the release of its May 1–2 policy meeting minutes last Wednesday. While the minutes revealed a generally upbeat assessment of the economy consistent w

The U.S. dollar has come back strongly. After losing nearly 10% in 2017 and an additional 4% in January, the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied more than 5% off of its February lows [Figure 1]. Gains have been driven by several factors, particularly risin

Last June, oil hit an interim low of about $42.50 and started to climb. By May 7, 2018, it had crossed $70 for the first time since 2014. President Trump announced the U.S. would be withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal the next day. We view rising

The first week of May brought a deluge of economic data, including the April jobs report, key surveys on business activity, and some important readings on inflation. Add in a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, and it’s fair to say that the m

The U.S. economy grew at 2.3% in the first quarter, better than the consensus estimate of 2.0%, but a slowdown from the near 3% growth of the prior three quarters. Persistent problems with seasonal adjustment of first quarter data and a lull in consu