2021 has been a very strong year for both stocks and the economy, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been some surprises. Below we take a look at some things that have happened so far in 2021 that have surprised the LPL Research team.

Surprise 1: Yields Aren’t Higher

Interest rates have surprised us twice this year. While we expected interest rates to increase this year, the strength of the move higher in the first quarter of 2021 was the first surprise. But reversing course and steadily falling since March may be an even bigger one. Put them together and the 10-year Treasury yield is still about 0.35% ab

Index Performance (as of 3:05 PM EST)

U.S. and International Equities

Markets Higher as Growth Leads

The major markets finished higher this week after starting the week lower, with the Dow Jones off by over 2% after Monday’s trading. Market participants were concerned about the increase in Delta COVID-19 virus cases, but market sentiment changed throughout the week given strong second quarter earnings results. Growth sectors (consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services) led the week on the backs of positive earnings, but also on the belief that even in the midst

On Thursday, July 22, the Conference Board released its June 2021 report detailing the latest reading for the Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of ten data series that tend to lead changes in economic activity. Many economic data points are backward looking, but we pay special attention to the LEI, as it has a forward-looking tilt to it and spans many segments of the economy. The index grew 0.7% month over month, a bit slower than the previous three months but still squarely in positive territory.

“The market’s upward momentum is contending with a few bearish narratives at the moment, one of which is second de

In data we received on Tuesday, July 20, U.S. Housing Starts increased 6.3% in June to 1.64 million units, a 3-month high. By region, housing starts rose in the South and West, and in the Northeast, single-family home construction soared more than 34% from the prior month. The data suggested residential construction continued its sharp post-COVID rebound despite the difficulties builders are having in finding labor and materials.

As seen in the LPL chart of the day, Housing Starts are now hovering in the same territory as the highs reached prior to the Great Recession; an economic instance spurred by excess housing activity and h