At next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Committee will likely need to reconcile its members’ views of when interest rate hikes should begin with the market’s ever changing view. After the September FOMC meeting, the Committee released its dot plot, which shows how individual Committee members were thinking about the path of short-term interest rates over the next few years. The Committee was evenly split between rate hikes beginning in late 2022 or beginning in early 2023. However, since the voting members were generally more dovish than the median dot plot would suggest, rate hikes were assumed, at

The S&P 500 Index has gained more than 20% so far this year, making more than 50 record highs along the way. Certainly nobody should be upset with that return if that was all 2021 brought us. However, we see signs that there could be more gains to come in the final two months of the year. Seasonal tailwinds, improving market internals, and clear signs of a peak in the Delta variant all provide potential fuel for equities heading into year-end, and we maintain our overweight equities recommendation as a result. 

Late October Is the Seasonal Low

One of the most important points we believe investors should recognize i

We have used most of the superlatives we know to describe corporate America’s stunning performances over the past two earnings seasons. Despite lofty expectations, results exceeded estimates by the biggest margins we’ve ever seen (and one of the authors of this report has been doing this for 23 years). We expect solid earnings gains during the upcoming third-quarter earnings season, but upside surprises will be smaller. Unfortunately, we won’t need as many superlatives.

Look For Many—But Smaller—Upside Surprises

Earnings growth in the first half of 2021 was amazingly strong, with S&P 500 In

Last week, Congress was able to push back a fast-approaching deadline for raising the debt ceiling to December. Markets applauded the move with a relief rally. Despite decreased uncertainty in the near term, we may be confronted with the same problem again in a couple of months. This week we look more closely at the role the debt ceiling plays in government financing, what could happen if the debt ceiling is not raised in a timely way, and why market participants were skittish about the approaching deadline as we look ahead to December.

Democrats and Republicans struck a deal last week to raise the debt ceiling, prompting a relie