Recent Treasury yield curve flattening may be a warning sign from fixed income markets, but there are also arguments to suggest otherwise. Historically, an inverting yield curve has been a solid leading indicator of recessions. However, the yield curve’s recent behavior is seemingly incongruous with that of equity markets, which have continued to hit record highs throughout the year. Although the yield curve may be implying a slower growth environment than equity markets are signaling, the curve is still a long way from inverting.
Year to date, the Treasury yield curve has flattened considera... Read more