Setting the Stage
These next two weeks are pivotal for the global economy. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy meeting starts June 18 with a policy announcement due June 19. In the following week, global leaders will convene at the G-20 Summit in Japan, and we’ll likely get clues on the state of the U.S.-China trade talks.
Fed fund futures are pricing in about a 20% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting [Figure 1]. We think a rate cut could be in play later this year if global conditions deteriorate, but a policy change at this next meeting may be too soon. Regardless, Fed commentary on the state of the economy and policy ha... Read more