Rates have moved meaningfully higher over the last six months, which may have been jarring for fixed income investors, who grew accustomed to low and steady yields. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.83%, with an impressive move from 2.04% on September 7, 2017 to 2.87% on March 2, 2018. The yield flirted with surpassing the 3% level in late February, closing as high as 2.95%. However, the action was not limited to long-term yields. The 2-year Treasury yield has also been on the move from 1.26% on September 7, 2017 to 2.24% on March 2, 2018, increasing 0.98%. The increase in yields across maturities is, in our view, a healthy repricing of growt

The bull market will celebrate its ninth birthday on March 9, 2018. During that nine-year period, the S&P 500 Index nearly increased fourfold in value including dividends, producing a total return of 385% (19.2% annualized) while rising almost 300% in price. The recent market volatility, driven by fears of tariffs, inflation, and monetary policy, has many wondering if this is the end of the road for the bull market. So how much might the current bull have left in the tank? Given that we are not seeing the warning signs that have historically signaled the ends of past bull markets, including excessive equity flows and activity in initial p

On March 1, 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would be imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. The S&P 500 Index fell 2% on the news before rallying over the last two hours of trading to finish the day down 1.3%. Uncertainty extended into Friday, with the S&P 500 down over 1% early, then rallying over the remainder of the trading day to finish with a gain of over 0.5%. In this week’s commentary, we look at the potential economic impact of the announced tariffs, evaluate the equity market’s response, and, while not our base case, look at what it would take for equity

March Madness for Central Banks

The month of March is generally eventful and provides us with multiple potential market-moving events to monitor. It has been a roller coaster of a year so far, with one of the strongest January returns ever for the S&P 500 Index, only to be followed by the fastest descent ever from record highs to a correction (nine days) in early February. As we turn the calendar to March, the days will get longer and a little warmer, and basketball brackets will be released.

To help investors cope with the distractions of March Madness and stay on top of the latest in the financial markets, we have create