Beige Book Suggests Continued Moderate Economic Growth

The Federal Reserve (Fed) was in the news last week, as markets digested the March 20–21 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement. The outcomes of the meeting were broadly in line with market expectations, with the Fed hiking interest rates by 0.25%, and upgrading its economic forecasts as the impact of tax reform was included for the first time. The law had not yet passed when the Fed released its previous forecasts on December 13, 2017. The Fed’s forecast of the future path of interest rates (commonly known as dot plots) showed an expectation of three rate h

The NCAA Men’s Tournament Final Four is set. Kansas, Loyola, Michigan, and Villanova are headed to San Antonio, Texas to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our “Sweet 16” commentary last week, this week we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2018: economic growth, earnings, trade policy, and the midterm elections.

While we expect a hard-fought battle between these factors and with it, more market volatility, we still see the potential for solid gains for stocks this year and maintain our year-end fair value S&P 500 Index

With shorter-maturity yields increasing as of late, the front end of the yield curve (shorter-maturity fixed income) may be offering an enticing trade-off between risk and reward, and a potential place for investors to play defense. Sector selection and yield curve positioning decisions are difficult in dynamic rising rate environments, but with scenario analysis, we can begin to determine how portfolios may perform in this challenging market.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“the Aggregate”), the most widely used high-quality bond benchmark, serves as a good example of the price weakness that has sur

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell will preside over his first Fed policy meeting March 20 – 21. Although this is his first meeting as chair, Powell has been a voting member of the policy committee since 2012 and is a seasoned veteran of Fed policy meetings. The Fed is widely expected to raise the target range for the fed funds rate 0.25 percentage points, from 1.25 – 1.50% to 1.50 – 1.75%, and anything more (or less) would be a shock for markets. With a rate hike already priced in, markets will be scrutinizing the Fed’s policy statement, Powell’s press conference following the meeting, and updated economic p