The latest weekly sentiment survey data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) released today shows significantly bearish sentiment from investors, marking the fourth consecutive week of predominantly bearish sentiment. 

Concerns of an economic slowdown brought on by potential tariffs, stickier inflation, and the possibility of higher-for-longer interest rates, coupled with a meaningful pullback in the technology sector, namely artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks, has dented sentiment in recent weeks. 

The percentage of individual investors who are bullish about short-term mark

Key Takeaways

• Yesterday, Treasury yields declined as investors got nervous about growth, with the 10-year yield temporarily dipping below 4.30%. 

• Consumer confidence fell in February, creating the catalyst for a decline in yields. 

• Recent signs of a downshift in growth led markets to price in two cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the latter half of this year. 

• On the plus side, improving loan demand suggests more capital expenditures. 

A Mixed Bag 

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is composed of two main components: the Curren

Chinese equities with artificial intelligence (AI) exposure have surged since AI start-up DeepSeek briefly rattled U.S. tech stocks with its low-cost, open-source model that rivaled the performance of its much larger U.S. rivals at a fraction of the cost. Simultaneously, over the last month, China has been a focal point in tariff and trade sanction conversations from the White House. While we acknowledge tariffs are a major factor and could be a headwind, they are unlikely to stifle the Chinese economy. Tariff actions have arrived softer than expected so far, and there is some optimism that China can strike a deal with the U.S. to avoid the w

The U.S. Treasury market is entering a significant transition period in 2025, facing both structural adjustments and all-too-familiar policy discussions. As the Federal Reserve's (Fed) shift from a zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) coincides with a substantial $7.5 trillion refinancing cycle, markets are also preparing for another round of debt ceiling negotiations. For investors, this environment presents compelling opportunities in Treasury securities: Yields above 4% across much of the Treasury curve offer attractive risk-free returns (although market volatility is expected to remain elevated), with potential for capital appreciation if