China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC), kicked off its annual meeting on Wednesday, March 5. This week-long concave, which also includes the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), brings together nearly 3,000 delegates from around the country to iron out national and economic policies for the coming year. Many consider the NPC a “rubber-stamp” legislative body as its decisions unanimously align with the views of the Chinese Communist Party — no proposed bill by the NPC has ever been rejected by parliament. Nonetheless, investors pay close attention to the mee

Key Takeaways:

• Softer real spending in January was a catalyst for traders to reset expectations for growth. Most notable moves were in bond markets as yields dipped on the 10-year Treasury.

• Investors will continue to focus on the uncertain growth trajectory. The odds are rising that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates three times this year.

• Tariffs stifle free and fair trade, but the impact may not be as bad as the scaremongers say. For example, roughly 75% of Mexican imports are industrial inputs, investment goods, and services. Only 25% are consumer goods. This is a key fact

Historical Challenges Revisited

Many observers note that large cap active managers have often struggled to outperform their benchmark indexes. This was one of many insights we discussed in our recent blog “Why Not Both? Blending Active and Passive Management” we specifically called out large growth managers as having some of the most severe challenges.

Could the Tide Be Turning?

The graph below highlights how the returns of mutual funds in the Lipper US Large Cap Growth category compare to the returns of the Russell 1000 Growth Index, a commonly used large growth benchmark. The blue triangles place

Fourth quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has been a good one. S&P 500 companies grew profits more than 18% year over year, according to FactSet data, with mega cap technology and financial companies doing most of the heavy lifting (about seven points of growth came from each). The Magnificent Seven grew earnings by an average of 37% and financials earnings jumped 50%. But the road ahead gets tougher. With new tariffs in place and more likely on the way, on top of mounting evidence that the U.S. economy is slowing, achieving double-digit earnings growth in 2025, as many expect, will be a tall task.

Big Numbers