In a unanimous decision yesterday, The Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged following its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This marks the second straight meeting in which a rate hike was skipped, however, Chair Jerome Powell, didn’t rule out future increases. For now, the target rate remains at 5.25%-5.50%. Markets reacted positively to the news as stock prices rallied and bond yields fell.

Leaving the Door Open

The FOMC’s November Statement maintained the possibility of future rate hikes as they remain “highly attentive to inflation risks”. The Committee is still determini

Even after a red October provided more trick than a treat for stock market investors, we continue into what has historically been one of the strongest periods for stock market seasonality.

A red October was the third consecutive month in a row that the S&P 500 was lower. August and September have never been good for stock market seasonals but historically, and especially in recent years, October has had a fairly solid track record for stocks—not the case in 2023 as the S&P 500 fell 2.2% during the month. The good news is that from a seasonality perspective, looking at data back to 1950, November has been the stronge

It’s a tradition here to write about what scares us around Halloween each year. The past few years have offered plenty of material to use in these annual commentaries, but with wars in Israel and Ukraine ongoing, Washington, D.C. dysfunction reaching new heights, the unrelenting rise in interest rates, still-high inflation, unaffordable housing, tight financial conditions, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that has not yet signaled it’s done hiking rates, the list seems to be a bit longer and scarier than it usually is. But these are risk factors, not our base case. Keep in mind there are plenty of positives at the same time, including

Despite headwinds, the U.S. could experience structural changes in the labor market, residential real estate, and inflation as the post-pandemic economy progresses into the New Year. As markets adjust to a new regime, investors should recognize the economy is becoming less interest rate sensitive and they should focus on leading indicators such as the ratio of part-time workers and not on lagging metrics such as the headline growth stats mostly cited in the media.

Setting up for a ‘Eucatastrophe’

J.R.R. Tolkien, author of the Lord of the Rings and famous member of The Inklings at Oxford University during the 194