2.10.22 Another Inflation Surprise Shifts Fed Expectations
Should we be surprised at inflation surprises at this point? The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well known measure of inflation, climbed 7.5% over the last year through January, its highest reading since 1982, according to data released this morning by the Labor Department. The Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus was for a reading of 7.3%, and while small in absolute terms this is a meaningful upside surprise. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the three-month annualized run rate for inflation is still running higher than the one-year number, as it has 18 of the last 19 months. Seeing that reverse will be an important sign
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