Key Highlights

- The latest release from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows small businesses plan to put their capital spending into overdrive.
- Further, overall optimism spiked to the highest since June 2021 and is now close to pre-pandemic levels.
- The percentage of businesses planning to increase capital spending in the very near term rose to 28%, the highest since January 2022, when companies were spending a lot to accommodate hybrid workers.
- But 2025 capital spending plans are not uniformly positive across industries. Chevron (CVX) plans to lower spending relative to 2024 but others such as MDU Resourc...
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Looking back, 2024 was another strong year for stocks. The market was driven higher by unwavering trends in technology, an enduring economy with moderating inflation, Fed rate cuts, and the prospect of investor-friendly policies from the incoming administration. As we look towards the stock market in 2025, here are some key considerations for equity investors:

Varied upside potential: If they persist, a combination of moderating inflation, stable interest rates, and strong earnings growth supports a higher S&P 500 valuation. Our fair value target range for 2025 is 6,275 to 6,375 based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 and our new 2026

With October behind us, we conducted a deeper dive into fund flows over the month. Flows measure the net movement of cash into and out of investment vehicles, such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETF). We analyzed flows to gain insight into investor demand and sentiment surrounding asset classes, sectors, and other classifications of markets.

Morningstar Category Flows

When looking at Morningstar category data in October, large blend equities experienced the largest inflow at $21.1 billion. This continues a trend we’ve seen throughout the year, as the large blend category is the top category in terms of flow

U.S. stocks pulled back this week as post-election momentum lost steam, paired with falling rate cut odds after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. On the macro side, key inflation data arrived broadly in-line with estimates. International stocks ended lower, with Asian markets continuing to struggle amid fragile sentiment as investors await additional stimulus measures from China while assessing the make-up of the incoming U.S. administration. Treasury yields continued to rise as well as the U.S. dollar, however oil and gold prices printed a weekly decline.

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