The U.S. dollar has lagged other currencies so far this year, as persistently low inflation suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not be as aggressive as global investors originally feared. However, recent Fed announcements — including an official start to long-awaited balance sheet normalization, as well as a refusal to back away from a potential rate hike in December — have caused market participants to reexamine the dovish Fed thesis, which has led to a stronger dollar over the past month. So, where does the dollar go from here? We believe that the combination of fundamental factors, such as disparities in major centra

This week marks the 30th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash in what has come to be known as Black Monday. The Dow plunged more than 22% on that day — the equivalent of a more than 5,000-point drop today — while markets around the world suffered severe declines as well. Here we look back at the crash, draw some comparisons to today’s market environment, and offer some comfort to those who may fear a repeat.

Quick Recap

We certainly won’t be able to go into much detail on the 1987 crash here because of word count considerations (you’re welcome). But if this anniversary leaves you wanting mor

Third quarter earnings season gets underway this week (October 9–13) and it should be another good one. The S&P 500 Index has exceeded earnings expectations 33 straight quarters and we see no reason why the third quarter won’t make it 34. However, as seen in Figure 1, earnings growth should fall short of the stellar results and double-digit pace of the past two quarters. We don’t like to lead with the negatives, but some of the reasons earnings growth may slow down this quarter include:

Hurricane impacts. The most visible impact of the devastating hurricanes (Harvey and Irma) late in the third quarter can be

We originally wrote on the topic of buying at all-time highs in June 2015. At that time, markets were near new highs, causing some to ask if the stock market was at its peak and poised to move lower. With hindsight being 20/20, we can now say markets were not at a peak, as the S&P 500 Index has gone on to return a cumulative 17% since that time (6/22/15 – 6/22/17), not including the impact of dividends. As is common with markets, the path over the last two years has been rocky at times, with two 10% pullbacks (one in August 2015, and another in January of 2016), but markets recovered and are again hovering near record highs. Though volat