The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.3% year over year in November, just below a cycle high of 2.4% growth last reached in September 2019.

Inflationary pressures have recovered noticeably since slowing earlier this year, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.

Core CPI has increased at least 2.3% year over year for the past four months, the first time that’s happened since September 2008. That momentum may seem concerning, but it’s a manageable pace in our view.

“Inflationary pressures have been a sign of economic strength recent

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) final policy meeting of 2019 starts today and will conclude tomorrow with the release of the Fed’s policy statement, updated economic projections, and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. After lowering its main policy rate at each of its last three meetings, the Fed is widely expected to pause as it gauges the impact of the recent cuts and the state of the economy.

It was a little less than a year ago, on December 19, 2018, that the Fed announced the fourth rate hike of 2018 and the ninth of the current expansion. Markets roundly jeered the move. The S&P 500 Index, already do

U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019. However, the economy is still growing, and we believe it will continue growing through 2020. As we highlighted in our Outlook 2020: Bringing Markets Into Focus, we’re projecting real GDP growth of 1.75% in 2020, slightly below average for this economic expansion. 

The Year in Review

The U.S. economy has made it out of a volatile year relatively unscathed, based on data we’ve seen. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew an average of 2.4% in the first three quarters of 2019, higher than the 2.3% average quarterly growth in this 10-year economic expansion [Figure 2]. Output

The U.S. job market bounced back in November.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 266,000 last month, a 10-month high and well above consensus estimates for a 180,000 gain. September and October payrolls were also revised up by 41,000. Manufacturing payrolls climbed by 54,000 in November, but about 40,000 of that rise reflected workers returning from the General Motors strike.

Job creation has slowed somewhat this year as the economic expansion has matured. However, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the pace of hiring is still noticeably above the expansion average, an impressive feat in the cycle’s 11th year.

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