4.28.26 Paper vs. Physical: What Tighter Oil Supplies Could Mean
With the proverbial ceasefire negotiation can kicked down the road for the second time in a week, the U.S. and Iran remain in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. While equity markets have bounced back this month, seemingly moving on to the more upbeat fundamental and macro backdrop, and crude oil futures have dropped off their March highs, the physical supply squeeze for oil may be somewhat underappreciated by investors. Entering 2026, crude oil over supply was expected to be a headwind for energy prices, but damage to the energy infrastructure and production cuts in the Middle East have accelerated uncertainty around the supply crunch spa
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