Why would we write a report about recession with the S&P 500 at record highs? Consider it a check-up. Just because you feel good doesn’t mean you skip your annual physical at the doctor. We check in on some of our favorite leading indicators to see if any cracks are forming in the economic expansion and its accompanying bull market. 

No Sign of Immediate Recession or Bear Market

With stocks setting more new record highs last week, why are we concerned about watching for recession? While our outlook is still optimistic, we don’t want to be complacent. We expect steady growth in the U.S. economy and corpor

U.S. stocks rallied for the sixth consecutive week, notching more new record highs along the way. Late-week optimism surrounding trade provided most of the spark, as lead U.S. negotiators expressed confidence a “phase one” trade agreement with China could be reached soon. The S&P 500 has not dropped two consecutive days since October 7–8.

Economic data showed that consumers continue to spend, buoying healthy inflationary pressures and growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.3% year over year in October, slightly lower than September’s cycle-high 2.4% growth

U.S. consumers continue to open up their wallets, according to the October retail sales report.

Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, the measure’s seventh gain in eight months. Retail sales’ rise was led by a 1.1% gain in gasoline store sales and a 0.9% increase in sales at “non-store retailers.” Furniture and clothing sales dropped the most of all categories. Control group sales, which we view as a cleaner measure of retail sales’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.3%.

Data on consumer activity is especially important to watch these days. Consumer spending has powered th

The long wait may be over. No, we aren’t talking about a U.S.-China trade agreement, though that may come before the end of this year. The two sides continue working on a few sticking points.

We’re talking about stabilizing global growth, which has been elusive over the past two years.

Global manufacturing surveys for October point to improvement. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) has increased three consecutive months to within an eyelash of the key 50 level, marking the breakpoint between expansion and contraction.

More evidence of stabilizing global e