The United States’ airstrike January 3, 2020, near Baghdad, Iraq, that killed a top Iranian military general was a major escalation in Mideast tensions. Iran’s retaliatory strike January 8 sent a message, but additional responses can’t be ruled out. We discuss what this conflict might mean for stocks and assess ongoing risks.

Stocks and Geopolitics

These latest developments in the Middle East understandably have many investors on edge. As market strategists, we face the difficult task of separating the human toll from the economic and financial toll—never easy when lives are lost in times of geopoliti

U.S. stocks weathered the Mideast conflict with the S&P 500 Index posting its 12th weekly gain out of the last 14 weeks. All major averages set fresh record highs during the week, causing some to ask whether stocks had come too far, too fast. 

Last year’s leader, the Nasdaq Composite, was the best performing major domestic index for the week, gaining on strength in the technology sector and internet stocks within the communications services sector. Large cap stocks’ market leadership continued, as the Russell 2000 edged lower.

The week’s economic calendar was headlined by Friday’s job

U.S. companies’ hiring momentum slowed in December, ending an otherwise upbeat 2019 on a somewhat down note.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 145,000 in December, below consensus estimates for a 160,000 gain. Manufacturing payrolls slid by 12,000, their biggest drop since August 2016, as the sector struggled with weakening global demand and lingering U.S.-China trade tensions. Calendar quirks related to the late Thanksgiving may have also played some role in the shortfall.

Even though December’s report was weaker than expected, we’ve been impressed with the job market’s durability in an aging economic

The first five days of 2020 are in the books. Although the headlines have been quite scary, equities have picked up right where they left off last year. In fact, after the first five trading days of the new year, the S&SP 500 Index is up a respectable 0.65%.

Jeffrey Hirsch of The Stock Trader’s Almanac follows and tracks many interesting seasonal patterns. One that we find very interesting states that how stocks perform the first five trading days of a new year could indicate how the full year will go. Now, we’ll be the first to admit no one should invest based only on this adage, but the results have been quite c