Last week, we revised our economic and market forecasts as the war against the COVID-19 pandemic wages on. We are likely in recession now, though we won’t know that for sure until more timely data is released. What is clear, however, is stocks have priced in a recession. We offer our latest thoughts on the bottoming process and take a deeper dive into our updated economic and market forecasts. 

Where We Are

The global COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most difficult human crises we have ever faced. In addition to the tragic human toll, containment efforts and uncertainty have caused significant economic disruption g

As COVID-19-related fear continues grip global financial markets, we wanted to take a closer look at factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook: confidence in the timing of a peak of new COVID-19 cases in the United States.

This is probably the most difficult signal in the playbook to call with any degree of certainty. We can look to data from countries that were affected earlier for clues, but many country-specific factors contribute to the outcomes, e.g., societal norms (such as greeting with a kiss in Italy), population density, age distributions, prevalence of preexisting health conditions, smoking rates, air pollution, avail

Policy makers in Washington, DC, worked over the weekend to try to put the finishing touches on a significant stimulus package to help cushion the economic and financial blow being delivered by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is “all in” already. After Monday’s announcement, which we will discuss in another post , it is fair to say there is little more the central bank can do to support economic growth and financial markets while we fight the COVID-19 global pandemic. They have done a lot, and that’s an understatement.

It looks like we are headed toward loans from the Fe

Over the past few weeks, investors may have been introduced to a new term they weren’t previously familiar with: circuit breakers. Today, we answer a few simple questions about circuit breakers:

What is a circuit break? A circuit breaker is a built-in temporary halt or momentary pause in trading in the stock market.

What are the triggers for a circuit breaker? There are three levels, or thresholds, at which trading will pause, and they are based on movement in the S&P 500 Index. Level 1 occurs when the S&P 500 declines at least 7% from its closing price the day before. Level 2 occurs if the index drops