The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above ‑ trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near ‑ term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long ‑ run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short ‑ duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.

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As a wave of inclement weather sweeps across much of the U.S., investors are also navigating a seasonally important period for markets. Much like winter storms can influence travel patterns and economic activity early in the year, January’s market performance has long been viewed as a potential signal for what lies ahead. This concept, known as the “January Barometer,” suggests that market momentum established in the opening month often carries through the remainder of the year, making the first weeks of 2026 particularly important. With both the weather and markets in flux, investors are watching closely to see if January d

Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long ‑ run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it

Some years ago, I was attempting to explain the importance of risk-adjusted performance to a client who was not sure it mattered to them. They stated boldly, “I can’t eat risk-adjusted returns.” Unable to help myself and thinking I was hilarious, I asked whether and how they were able to eat any kind of returns at all. What the client was trying to convey was that they simply cared about increasing the value of their assets. To them, risk-adjusted returns seemed like an academic exercise rather than something that impacted them. Here we seek to illustrate here why risk-adjusted returns should matter to most investors and how