We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process.

Today we are making two changes. The first is to Signal #1, which we upgraded from “monitoring daily” to “almost there.” We aren’t ready to check this one off completely, based on the latest data from Johns Hopkins, but we may be able to declare the peak with confidence over the next week (though we acknowledge a second wave cannot be ruled out).

The other change we have made is to Signal #4. Recent gains have removed oversold conditions. With sto

What a ride 2020 has been for investors. The fastest bear market ever, now one of the steepest recoveries ever. After being down more than 30% for the year on March 23, this recovery is extremely impressive. In fact, before yesterday, over the previous 13 days the S&P 500 had gained nearly 25%, for the best 13-day bounce since July 1938.

This brings the question, could stocks actually close the year positive? “Yes, we have seen a historic reversal from the lows a few weeks ago and many are now wondering if stocks could actually turn positive before 2020 is over,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan De

First quarter earnings season will kick off this week with 40 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report results, including several of the biggest banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts are calling for a roughly 10% year-over-year decline in earnings for the index, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, down from the 4% year-over-year increase expected as of January 1. Even the lowered forecast may prove optimistic given some analysts have not adjusted numbers since mid-March in response to the lockdowns in many major cities throughout the country.

The focus for investors this quarter will be on finding

The economy has halted for the past several weeks, and with it the longest economic expansion ever has ended, meaning we are now in a recession. What makes this recession unique is the government intentionally brought it on, with the chances for an economic bounce back later this year high if the virus is contained. If this recession becomes one of the shortest on record, as we expect, stocks may enjoy better times ahead, as stocks historically have led the economy out of recessions. 

Longest Expansion Ends

After more than 10 years of a record expansion, the US economy likely entered recession at the end of March. The w