Stocks have rallied nicely off the March 23 lows on the back of a bold policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lawmakers in Washington, DC, which was followed by signs that a peak in growth of COVID-19 cases may come soon. At Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 Index stood 19% above the March 23 closing low but down 17.7% for the year. That begs the question whether a positive year is possible with a pretty big hole still left to dig out of.

“A positive year for the S&P 500 is still possible but will require a steady recovery in economic growth and corporate profits in the second half of the year,”

Did the US economy go into a recession last month? According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the answer is no, but we think there’s a good chance that will be revised after the fact to show the economy did indeed begin a recession in March 2020.

This, of course, ends the longest economic expansion in our country’s history, at 128 months of growth and a 50% increase in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over this 10-plus-year period.

This will be the 13th recession since World War II, with the average recession lasting 11 months on average, and the shortest ever only six

Experiencing a major pullback in stocks is never a comfortable feeling. In times like these, we believe it can be helpful to set aside the daily headlines and keep perspective of how stocks have historically performed over the long term. After all, the majority of market participants are long-term investors, not day traders as the financial media would have its viewers believe.

Investors whose portfolios contain high-quality fixed income and equity positions have almost certainly seen their fixed income allocations benefit greatly in recent months, as their equity positions have suffered. Given the most recent market, equity allo

Stock market volatility has remained high as investors continue to closely track COVID-19 containment efforts while getting a glimpse into how damaging travel restrictions, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing have been on the US economy. We continue to watch for signs of a peak in new cases in the United States, which would allow investors to start thinking about a resumption of economic activity and a potentially powerful economic rebound in the second half of this year. In the meantime, stocks may revisit the March lows.

Where We Are

The war against the COVID-19 pandemic continues this week as the number of new case