Retail sales data for June was reported on Thursday, handily beating expectations for the second consecutive month. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, June saw a 7.5% increase month over month, compared with Bloomberg’s consensus expectations for a 5% gain. This comes on the heels of a more than 18% gain in May, but also following by far the lowest reading ever, a 14.7% decline in April.

Pent-up demand and the continued easing of lockdowns during June likely contributed to the large increase, which saw sales rise across most categories. Sales spiked 8.2% at auto dealers, but even sales excluding autos and g

The gradual reopening of the US economy has started to lift Main Street sentiment from depressed levels, according to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book. Despite growing concerns about rising COVID-19 cases in several pockets of the country, economic activity has returned in most industries.

In its Beige Book, the Fed presents qualitative observations made by community bankers and business owners—or “Main Street”—about economic (housing, labor market, manufacturing, nonresidential construction, prices, tourism, wages) and banking conditions (lending conditions, loan demand, loan quality). At LPL

Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of the US economy, as traditional monthly and quarterly economic data are too slow to pick up the changes that are occurring.

The high-frequency data that we monitor is now showing a pause, slowing, or even a modest reversal in the recovery. This comes as some states rollback reopenings, and Americans make changes to their

Based on the latest polling data, there’s growing consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden potentially may win the election and Democrats possibly may sweep Congress. Some might think this could be a negative for stocks, as a higher corporate tax rate that reduces earnings could be part of the Democratic platform.

Early writers of the US Constitution were worried about one party having too much power that could enable factions in Washington, DC, to enact more extreme policies and political ideals, upsetting the carefully balanced apple cart. As we noted in our recently released Midyear Outlook 2020, stocks historicall