Index Performance

US and International Equities

The major market indexes finished the week higher. The tech-heavy NASDAQ had a solid week returning over 4%. In addition, many international markets followed in lockstep with their US counterparts. Emerging markets stocks (MSCI EM Index) handily outperformed developed international markets (MSCI EAFE Index) by almost 2 percentage points.

Emerging Markets Emerge

Even with the emerging market’s (EM) strong performance this week, LPL Research believes these investments have more upside potential.

• The forward Price Earning

Today Joe Biden becomes the 46th President of the United States. We’ve already looked forward at what his presidency, coupled with a blue wave in Congress, could mean for policy in Market Policy Projections for 2021, so today we take a look back at how stocks performed under President Donald Trump.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) gained approximately 56% during Trump’s four years in office, which comes out to an annualized return of an impressive 11.8%. “President Trump’s annualized Dow return of 11.8% was the best for any Republican president since President Ca

This earnings season likely will be the last of the earnings recession. After year-over-year declines in the first three quarters of 2020, the fourth quarter likely will make it four in a row. Looking ahead, earnings are likely to grow solidly in the first quarter 2021 and throughout the year, which we think will enable stocks to grow into their lofty valuations.

Expect Modest Earnings Decline

We expect solid upside to S&P 500 corporate earnings relative to current estimates. However, expecting a year-over-year increase may be too much to ask. Consensus is calling for a roughly 8.5% year-over-year decline in earnings pe

Investment-grade credit spreads, the extra yield you get from investment-grade corporate bonds compared to similarly dated US Treasuries, have already tightened to a level you usually only see during the middle of the economic cycle—and that can have consequences for bond investors. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the current spread as of January 15 was at 1%, close to the tightest level of the previous cycle of 0.91%, hit in February 2018, and in the bottom quarter of all values going back to 1997.

“Corporate bonds will likely get support from an improving economic outlook as vaccines become more widely distrib