On Thursday, July 22, the Conference Board released its June 2021 report detailing the latest reading for the Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of ten data series that tend to lead changes in economic activity. Many economic data points are backward looking, but we pay special attention to the LEI, as it has a forward-looking tilt to it and spans many segments of the economy. The index grew 0.7% month over month, a bit slower than the previous three months but still squarely in positive territory.

“The market’s upward momentum is contending with a few bearish narratives at the moment, one of which is second de

In data we received on Tuesday, July 20, U.S. Housing Starts increased 6.3% in June to 1.64 million units, a 3-month high. By region, housing starts rose in the South and West, and in the Northeast, single-family home construction soared more than 34% from the prior month. The data suggested residential construction continued its sharp post-COVID rebound despite the difficulties builders are having in finding labor and materials.

As seen in the LPL chart of the day, Housing Starts are now hovering in the same territory as the highs reached prior to the Great Recession; an economic instance spurred by excess housing activity and h

Monday’s big down day was a harsh reminder of how markets actually can produce volatility. It was the worst day of the year for the Dow and only the second drop of 1% or more for the S&P 500 Index in just over two months.

As we noted recently in Three Things That Worry Us, there are many reasons to think that after more than a 90% rally (and virtually a double on a total return basis), the S&P 500 could finally be ready for a break. From less stocks participating, to weak seasonality, to a lack of bears, to typical choppiness during year two of a bull market, the summer months could be ripe for an eventual pullback

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced yesterday that the COVID-19 recession is over. If things don’t feel all that different, it’s because they announced the recession ended in April 2020. Yes, that’s last year. We are now in the 15th month of the new expansion. This delay is perfectly normal. NBER doesn’t change a recession call once it’s made, so they need to have a high degree of confidence in the supporting data. Waiting until 15 months after the recession is over is actually the average since they started making recession calls in real time in the 1970s.

“Stock markets