The Treasury yield curve is plunging further into inversion, the point at which long-term yields fall below short-term yields.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Yield Curve Plunges Further Into Inversion, points on the yield curve ar
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We’re a week into August, and trade tensions have been the biggest driver of U.S. stocks, as we predicted in our latest Weekly Market Commentary. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and we are getting a heavy dose of it now.
On A
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U.S. stocks have hit another trade-induced summer storm.
The S&P 500 Index fell 3% on Monday, its worst day since December 2018. The index is now about 6% from record highs in U.S. stocks’ worst bout of volatility since May.
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August has been one of the worst months for the stock market historically. In fact, it has been the worst month on average for the past 10 years, with the S&P 500 Index down an average of 0.78% for that month [Figure 1]. Last week’s 3.1% sl
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U.S. monetary policy has taken another U-turn.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25-basis point (0.25%) rate reduction July 31. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, The Federal Reserve’s First Rate Cut in 10 Years, the rate cu
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to start an easing cycle this week, which has several investment implications. We have written a fair amount about the Fed’s U-turn in policy stance this year, including last week’s Weekly Market Commen
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The S&P 500 Index is very close to our year-end target of 3,000. The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% year to date and, after first closing above our year-end fair value target range July 12, it now stands less than 1% from our target [Figure 1]. Now
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Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions
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Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank. The S&P 500 Index gained 17.4% during the first half of 2019 — an excellent performance — even though a decent chunk of those gains reve
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We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year. Stocks already have had quite a run in 2019, buoyed by a return to fundamentals, with the S&P 500 Index up 17.4% year to date through June 28 for an 18.5% total return. The decisio
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