The term “resource nationalism” generally describes the deliberate effort by nation states to assert control over, direct, and secure access to natural resources within their borders or broader spheres of influence. It is rarely just about commodities themselves. Rather, it reflects a deeper strategic impulse where governments begin to view resource endowments as core to national power, economic resilience, and geopolitical advantage. Once that mindset takes hold, it does not remain confined to the resource sector alone. It propagates outward, reshaping policy frameworks, trade relationships, capital flows, and ultimately, the broader macro landscape.

 

What Regions or Countries Might Benefit?

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Resource nationalism is becoming an increasingly dominant force, with governments actively asserting control over natural resources to secure economic and geopolitical leverage. The clear implication of this shift is structurally higher commodity prices, as competition to secure supply intensifies. Beyond commodities themselves, commodity-linked equities — particularly in energy and materials — as well as commodity-exposed regions like Latin America, are poised to be clear and sustained beneficiaries over time.

 

Is Resource Nationalism Cyclical or a More Permanent Trend?

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We view resource nationalism as more of a recurring cycle than a permanent feature of the global economy. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, natural resources were largely controlled by colonial powers and multinational enterprises, leaving resource-rich regions with limited sovereignty over extraction and distribution. This changed after World War II as decolonization enabled newly independent nations to reclaim control over their natural resources. The movement reached its peak in the 1970s, particularly around the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, when resource nationalism became a major driver of inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical outcomes.

 

Beginning in the 1980s, globalization and market liberalization shifted priorities toward efficiency, free capital flows, and integrated supply chains, reducing the influence of resource nationalism. Around 2020, the cycle turned again as the pandemic exposed supply-chain vulnerabilities, prompting governments to prioritize resilience, security, and control of critical resources over efficiency.

 

Surge in Export Bans Globally Post-2020

• * 2025 data is estimated
• Source: LPL Research, St. Louis Fed, GTA-NIPO 06/09/26
• Disclosures: The economic forecast may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted with be successful.

 

What are Some Potential Investment Implications

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Resource nationalism typically reemerges as part of a broader shift in the global political economy, rather than through isolated policy actions. As governments increasingly view access to energy, metals, food, and other strategic materials as a national security priority, policies aimed at securing domestic supply can become self-reinforcing and persist for years. For investors, this environment has historically been supportive of commodities and commodity-related equities.

 

Supply constraints, coupled with greater government involvement in securing critical resources, often strengthen pricing power across the resource complex. As this trend unfolds, exposure to sectors such as energy, metals, and other real assets may become increasingly important for portfolios seeking to navigate a more fragmented, strategically driven global economy.

 

Find more on information on resource nationalism and other key themes that LPL Research expects to shape markets in the second half in our Midyear Outlook 2026: Policy, Buildouts, and Bottlenecks.

 

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